Holt or Wayne: Who's the Next Wide Receiver to Get a Gold Jacket?

For the last few years, there's been a logjam of wide receivers among finalists for the Pro Football Hall of Fame ... and you can throw in the semifinalists, too. There were a lot of qualified candidates, but none was able to break through.

That is until this year. Two-and-a-half weeks ago, Houston Texans' wide receiver Andre Johnson was announced as part of the Class of 2024.

Logjam broken, right?  Maybe. But maybe not.

Two wide receivers from the Final 15 -- Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne -- are so evenly qualified that it's hard to be sure who emerges first. Then there are the candidates next in line -- semifinalists who, with Johnson out of the picture, now have the opportunity to move up after years of waiting.

Hines Ward, an eight-time-semifinalist, is one. Steve Smith, a three-time semifinalist, is another. So is Anquan Boldin, also a semifinalist the past three years.

Between Holt and Wayne, the slightest of edges would go to Torry Holt in terms of momentum. The St. Louis Rams' receiver has been a finalist five times and survived the first reduction cut from 15 to 10 the past two years. Wayne reached the top 10 in 2023 but was cut right away this year.

Of course, that could reverse next year. It's possible that Wayne's former Indianapolis teammate, defensive end Dwight Freeney, overshadowed Wayne this year. With Freeney elected to the Class of 2024 and out of the way, voters could refocus on Wayne in 2025.

Or, so conventional wisdom suggests.

Additionally, with Andre Johnson out of the mix and one -- maybe two -- of the semifinalists moving up, that could change the dynamic among voters. That's because Ward, Smith and Boldin bring intangibles to the debate. All three were tough as nails, so considerations other than stats will be mentioned.

In my view, that's what makes the Pro Football Hall-of-Fame process superior to other Halls of Fame. There's a debate phase that allows the "eye test" to be applied in addition to -- not in lieu of -- traditional statistics and honors like All-Pros and Pro Bowls, etc.

As I said, Holt has the edge in the direction of his candidacy. But, now, let's check traditional things -- like the numbers and the "alls."

Of the two Wayne has more career receptions, yards and touchdown catches. But if you look deeper and go by receptions per 16 games, Holt emerges at the top in all three. Wayne's advantage in longevity accounts for his career numbers.

When the NFL played 12 or 14-game seasons and a receiver totaled 1,000 yards, it was a big deal. But in 1978 the league expanded to 16-game seasons, and now it lasts 17. So the 1,000-yard season became less meaningful.

Using a 16-game season, the rough equivalent of a 1,000-yard year is 1,333 yards for those receivers who played prior to 1978. It's an odd number, so let's round it down to 1,300. Holt had six 1,300-yard seasons, including two 1,600-yard monster seasons. He's one of only seven players in NFL history to have two such seasons, and no one has three.

There are a lot of Hall-of-Fame pass catchers who never had a year that productive.

Wayne's numbers are impressive, too ---four seasons of 1,300 yards, including one of 1,510 which led the NFL in 2007. Holt led the NFL both times he hit the 1,600-plus mark and led it in yards per catch in 2000 and receptions in 2003 with 117.

That's something called "black ink" -- i.e., when league-leading numbers are cast in bold type on statistics charts on Pro Football Reference.com. It's a carry-over from baseball statistics. If someone ranks in the top 10 in any category it's called "grey ink," and Wayne has 20 of those, while Holt has 19.

Too technical? Hey, just trying to find a way to separate the careers of these two guys. It's not easy.

Holt went to seven Pro Bowls and Wayne six. But will it matter to voters that three of Holt's were as an injury replacement? It hasn't so far. None of Wayne's were. Wayne was first-team All-Pro in 2010 and second-team in 2007 and 2009. Holt was first-team in 2003 and second-team in 2006.

See what I mean about being close?

Holt was a member of the 2000s' all-decade team, but, in fairness, Wayne's career fell in the middle of decades. Had there been a 2005-14 or 2006-15 team, he likely would've been been on it ... but we'll never know.

What else can we look at? How about postseason performance and success? That always seems to be one of the key "boxes" for voters. Both have one Super Bowl ring -- Holt from Super Bowl XXXIV and Wayne from Super Bowl XLI -- and both were on losing teams there. 

Wayne played 21 games in the playoffs, caught 93 passes for 1,254 yards (13.5-yd avg,) and 9 touchdowns. And Holt? He played about half as many games (10) and had about half as as many numbers: 47 receptions for 630 yards (13.4-yd avg.), with four going for scores.

But what if they're compared on a 16-game basis? You guessed it: Holt's numbers are slightly higher on receptions and yards, while Wayne maintains a slight lead on touchdown catches.

Told you. It's close.

Holt was renowned for his precise route running and had excellent speed early in his career. Knee injuries later slowed him some, but he was a true deep threat early. Wayne could go deep, but he did most of his damage on intermediate routes -- and, like Holt, he was a superb route runner.

As if that's not enough, both were in similar situations. They were on teams where they played opposite a Hall-of-Fame receiver. So they had to share the ball as well as the accolades. But, of the two, Wayne had more time as a No.1-receiver after Hall-of-Famer Marvin Harrison retired following the 2006 season. From then on, Wayne was "the guy".

Both had great quarterbacks throwing to them -- Kurt Warner for Holt, Peyton Manning for Wayne -- but it was Wayne who had a Hall-of-Famer throwing to him for more seasons than Holt.

Finally, let's look at the wait for each.

Holt has been eligible since 2015 and Wayne since 2020, which means Holt has been in the queue longer. If this case is as close as it seems, maybe that's how voters break the tie.

Bottom line?

There isn't a definitive one, but I'd say that Holt edges Wayne next year and gets his long-awaited bust as part of the Class of 2025. That would leave Wayne a path to one the next year ... except for one potential problem: Larry Fitzgerald becomes eligible for the Class of 2026.

His 1,432 receptions, 17,492 receiving yards, 121 touchdowns receptions and 11 Pro Bowls dwarf everyone we're talking about here -- finalist or semifinalist. So that begs the question: Could he be the next wide receiver to be elected? If voters don't get the Holt/Wayne impasse broken, he could be.

Stay tuned.